EPA - Ireland's Environment 2016 - An Assessment

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Ireland’s Environment – An Assessment 2016 188
Weather, which is a major driver of agronomic and
environmental responses, is variable and the predictive
power of forecasting is limited over longer periods.
Variations in the magnitude of meteorological parameters
can have an effect on grass and crop performance and the
ability to carry out field operations.
Climate change is affecting the context in which
agriculture operates. The main climate change impacts
expected for the agriculture sector will result from
changes in air and soil temperature, changes in rainfall
patterns and extreme events. The mean annual surface
air temperature has increased by approximately 0.8°C
over the last 110 years and the beginning of the growing
season for certain species is now occurring up to 10 days
earlier.3 Average annual national rainfall has increased
by approximately 60 mm or 5% in the period 1981 to
2010, compared to the 30-year period 1961 to 1990.
Typically climate models project Ireland will get wetter
in Winter and drier in Summer (Nolan, 2015). However,
confidence in this statement is low in scenarios where
climate change is successfully limited to below 2°C and
the large uncertainty in modelling of climate change for
Ireland at the interface between the North Atlantic and
European continent. Extreme events are likely to increase
in intensity and frequency. Therefore precipitation may
occur in more intense downpours together with longer dry
spells, impacting on runoff volumes and water availability
between rainfall events. Seasonal extremes have drawn
into critical focus vulnerabilities within the agriculture
sector with respect to extreme rainfall events (flooding
in winter 2015/2016 including Storm Desmond, Fodder
Crisis Autumn/Winter 2012/2013). Therefore, there
will be higher risk of disruption of agricultural activities
if adaptation measures such as water management
systems are not adopted. There will remain a significant
risk of emergent animal and plant diseases establishing
permanent foothold on the island, as winter conditions
get milder and wetter. The number of annual frost
days (temperatures below 0°C) has decreased which is
increasing the risk of over-wintering of pathogens.
The soils of Ireland vary in their physical, chemical and
biological characteristics not only at national and regional
scales but also within farms and fields. While soils can be
managed there are limits to what can be achieved and
controlled by management practices alone. In addition,
other local characteristics, such as elevation, have a
profound influence on potential productivity. Generally,
the drier more productive soils of the south-east combined
with lower rainfall and longer growing season provide a
better platform for high output systems compared with
the north-west where the wetter soils, higher rainfall and a
shorter growing season increase the production challenge.
3
One consequence of these factors is that the more
intensive grass and tillage production systems are more
concentrated in the south and east while the less intensive
systems dominate in the north-west.
Structure of Irish Farming
140,000 farms of varying size manage 67% of all land
in the country.
Land cover data in 2012 showed that 67.35% of national
land cover is agricultural, making it the largest user of
land in Ireland (EPA, 2015a). The land area of Ireland is
6.9 million hectares, of which approximately 4.4 million
hectares is used for agriculture. Of this figure, 3.6 million
hectares, or circa 81% of total agricultural area, is devoted
to grassland (pasture, hay and grass silage), with a further
0.5 million hectares, or 11% of total agricultural area,
being classed as rough grazing. Some 80-90% of the
diet of dairy and beef animals is composed of grass or
silage that is grown on-farm. Crop production in Ireland
occupies an area of approximately 0.36 million hectares
and accounts for about 8% of the agricultural land area in
Ireland (CSO, 2016). Approximately 25,000 farmers (17%)
managed over 2 million hectares. A further 1.8 million
hectares was managed by 55,000 farmers with holding
sizes of between 20 and 50 hectares. Nearly half of all
farmers (60,000 farmers) farmed the remaining 0.6 million
hectares.
In 2013, there were 139,600 farms in Ireland (CSO, 2015).
Of these farms, 78,600 (excluding pig and poultry) have
an output of greater than €8,000 per year. The remaining
farms include 2,000 pig and poultry farms, 50,000 small
farms (with output less than €8,000 per year) and 8,000
very small farms (micro farms). There is also a tendency
for farms in the south and east to be larger than those in
other parts of the country. In 2013, the average farm size
was 32.5 hectares (ha). The farms in the Border, Midlands
and Western Region were smaller on average, at 27.1 ha,
compared to 38.6 ha in the Southern and Eastern Region
(Figure 12.1). More than half (52.7%) of all farms were
located in the Border, Midland and Western Regions.