Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

95 Chapter 4: Climate Change Projected national compliance. According to EPA projections, Ireland is not on track to meet the 2030 target of a 51% emissions reduction (compared with 2018 levels), associated carbon budget targets and sectoral emissions goals. This is despite the projections including most measures from the 2024 Climate Action Plan and previous plans, indicating the scale of the challenge ahead. Further measures still need to be identified and implemented to achieve the 2030 target. The first two carbon budgets (2021-2030), which aim to support the 51% emissions reduction goal, are projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of between 17% and 27%. Sectoral emissions ceilings for 2025 and 2030 are projected to be exceeded in almost all cases, including in agriculture, electricity, industry and transport (see Figure 4.11). Only the commercial and public buildings sector is projected to stay within its allotted ceiling, provided the ambitious measures outlined in the 2024 Climate Action Plan and in previous plans are implemented in full. The projections show that implemented policies and measures in the With Existing Measures scenario can deliver an 11% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with 2018 levels. The With Additional Measures scenario, including policies and measures from the 2024 Climate Action Plan, is projected to deliver a 29% emissions reduction over the same period. The EPA projections also highlight that approximately 8.75 Mt CO 2 eq of savings by 2030 identified in the 2024 Climate Action Plan were not included in the projections. If that level of savings could be realised in 2030, the percentage reduction in emissions achieved in total (including LULUCF) would be 42%, still short of the 51% emissions reduction goal. These measures were not included in the EPA projections because an implementation pathway to merit their inclusion could not be modelled at that point in time. Some of the more significant excluded measures relate to agriculture diversification, a portion of Avoid-Shift measures in transport and the replacement of traditional construction materials with lower carbon alternatives. Also not included were unallocated emissions savings of 26.25 Mt CO 2 eq in the second carbon budget period (2026-2030) in the 2024 Climate Action Plan, which have not yet been attributed to any sector. Projected EU compliance. Ireland’s 2030 target under the EU ESR is to deliver a 42% reduction of emissions compared with 2005 levels by 2030. This target was set in April 2023 upon amendment of the ESR. The ESR includes sectors outside the scope of the EU ETS, such as agriculture, transport, residential, public/commercial services and waste, and is also referred to an ‘non-ETS’. EPA projections show that agriculture and transport emissions form the majority of ESR emissions. Combined they represent 80% of projected ESR emissions in 2030 under both the With Existing Measures scenario and the With Additional Measures scenario. Without the use of ETS and LULUCF flexibilities, 6 the latest EPA projections show that currently implemented policies and measures (With Existing Measures) will achieve a reduction of 9% on 2005 levels by 2030. If policies and measures in the higher ambition (With Additional Measures) scenario are implemented, EPA projections show that Ireland can achieve a reduction of 25% by 2030. Both the With Existing Measures and the With Additional Measures scenarios indicate that Ireland will be significantly short of the 42% reduction target. EPA projections show that use of ETS flexibility alone will not bring Ireland into compliance under the ESR. When ETS flexibility is applied, projections indicate that Ireland will cumulatively exceed the ESR 2021-2030 emissions allocation by 31.1 Mt CO 2 eq, even with the implementation of policies and measures from the With Additional Measures scenario. Similarly, when both ETS and LULUCF flexibilities are applied, the projections still indicate that Ireland will cumulatively exceed the ESR 2021-2030 emissions allocation by 17.7 Mt CO 2 eq, even with the implementation of policies and measures from the With Additional Measures scenario. Sectoral emissions The following provides a summary of historical and projected emissions trends in key emitting sectors. For agriculture-, transport- and energy-related emissions, further analysis can be found in their respective chapters. Agriculture emissions. Over the period 1990-2023, agriculture emissions have increased by 1.3%, mainly driven by a 4.9% increase in methane emissions from enteric fermentation and a 4.5% increase in emissions from manure management. After initially showing a rising trend in the 1990s, agriculture emissions began to decrease steadily between 1998 and 2011. However, since 2011, emissions have trended upwards again, with an overall peak in emissions reported in 2021. In the last 10 years, dairy cow numbers have increased by 40.6%, with a corresponding milk production increase of 56.0%. This reflects both national plans to expand milk production under Food Wise 2025 and the removal of the milk quota in 2015. In the same 10-year period, sheep numbers increased by 11.5%, pig numbers by 1.6% and poultry numbers by 29.4%.