Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

93 Chapter 4: Climate Change Table 4.2  Compliance with Effort Sharing Regulation targets 2021-2025 (kilotonnes CO 2 equivalent) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total greenhouse gas emissions without LULUCF 60,191 59,003 55,007 – Total verified emissions from stationary installations under Directive 2003/87/EC 15,320 14,686 12,189 – CO 2 emissions from domestic aviation 20 21 31 Total ESR emissions 44,852 44,295 42,787 EU ESR Targets† 43,479 42,357 40,520 38,683 36,845 Gross distance to target -1372 -1938 -2267 + annualised ETS flexibility a 1908 1908 1908 1908 1908 Net distance to target 536 -30 -359 a Set out in Annex II and Annex III of Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2020/2126 with additional potential flexibilities arising from LULUCF Source: EPA, 2024b As outlined in the section below, ‘Projected future emissions trends’, in terms of EU compliance, it is projected that reaching the 2030 EU emissions reduction target of 42% will require full and rapid implementation of the 2024 Climate Action Plan measures with a requirement that further measures are identified and implemented. Projected future emissions trends The EPA produces greenhouse gas emissions projections using two scenarios or levels of ambition, representing different possible trajectories for Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 4.10). The first scenario, With Existing Measures, forecasts Ireland’s emissions including all national policies and measures implemented by the end of the most recent inventory year available at the time of publication (2022 in the case of the most recent EPA projections). Implemented policies and measures such as those in the National Development Plan (DPER, 2021 ) and the climate action plans are included in this scenario. The second scenario, With Additional Measures, has a higher level of ambition and includes planned government policies and measures to reduce emissions such as those in Ireland’s 2024 Climate Action Plan. This plan was published in its final form in May 2024, and some policies and measures have yet to be implemented. As implementation happens, the policies and measures will be migrated into the With Existing Measures scenario. It is important to note that none of the savings modelled in the EPA projections, whether in the With Existing Measures scenario or the With Additional Measures scenario, will be achieved until the implementation actions have been delivered and the resulting emissions reductions are seen in the annual greenhouse gas inventory.