Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

91 Chapter 4: Climate Change Figure 4.8  Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 target and carbon budgets ˜ National total with LULUCF - Target Trajectory Year Million tonnes CO 2 eq 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 Carbon Budget 1 295 Mt CO 2 eq 2021- 2025 2021-2023 GHG emissions, 63.9% Remaining carbon budget, 36.1% -51% GHG, greenhouse gas. Source: EPA, 2024b Total national emissions (including LULUCF) from 2021 to 2023 are 188.43 Mt CO 2 eq, accounting for 63.9% of the first 5-year carbon budget of 295 Mt CO 2 eq. This leaves 36.1% of the budget available for the remaining 2 years. To stay within budget for the first carbon budget period will require a substantial 8.3% annual emissions reduction in 2024 and 2025. Non-achievement of the first carbon budget would also see the excess emissions carried forward into the second budget period, and the second carbon budget would be reduced by that amount. If this occurs, it would make achieving the second budget substantially more difficult. Looking at the sectors, the sectoral budgets already used up range from 60.9% in the agricultural sector to 67.9% in the electricity sector (see Figure 4.9). In part, the extent of usage of the electricity budget is related to the continued use of coal in electricity generation. However, this use is in decline and coal generated only 3.5% of electricity in 2023 compared with 7.0% in 2022. The sectoral emissions ceilings were set with the expectation of achieving specific emissions reductions in each sector in 2030 relative to 2018, with interim targets for 2025 being set out in the 2023 Climate Action Plan and subsequently updated in the 2024 Climate Action Plan. In relation to LULUCF, no sectoral ceiling has been set. However, the 2024 Climate Action Plan set out an ambition for the LULUCF sector that is aligned with the EU LULUCF Regulation target of a fixed reduction of 0.626 Mt CO 2 eq by 2030 below a baseline set at the average of 2016-2018 emissions.