Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

81 Chapter 4: Climate Change Climate Change 1. Introduction 1 www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ (accessed 17 July 2024). The findings of the 2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, IPCC, 2023) 1 are clear, stark and challenging in relation to climate change. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimates indicating that we will reach a decadal average of 1.5°C of warming in the near term without immediate and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, the first 12-month period to exceed 1.5°C of warming as an average was February 2023 to January 2024: boosted by El Niño, the average global temperature was estimated to be 1.52°C higher than in 1850-1900, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards. Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment (ICCA; Thorne et al. , 2024), modelled on the work of the IPCC, is Ireland’s first climate assessment (Topic Box 4.1). It echoes what has been found globally and shows that our climate is changing in Ireland and that we are not prepared. In line with global trends, Ireland’s annual average temperature has increased by approximately 1°C over the last 100 years, with 16 of the 20 warmest years occurring since 1990, and 2023 being the hottest year on record. In terms of responding, the first comprehensive assessment of the world’s progress on climate action – the Global Stocktake – took place in 2023 at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28). The COP28 agreement, known as the UAE Consensus, was reached by close to 200 countries and highlighted progress on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support. However, it also revealed that parties are not yet collectively on track towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The UAE Consensus in particular highlighted the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and reach net zero, in line with the science provided by the IPCC (UNFCCC, 2023). Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) greenhouse gas inventories and projections show that significantly more action is needed if Ireland is to meet its European Union (EU) and legally binding national emissions targets, which include staying within ambitious national carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings. These data show that reaching the 2030 target will require full implementation of policies that deliver emissions reductions across all sectors of Ireland’s economy in the short term to provide the foundation for longer term ambitions. These include large-scale and immediate emissions reductions across the energy system, which is currently heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Climate adaptation has, until recently, struggled to compete with climate mitigation in terms of prioritisation, funding and attention. However, increasingly we can see that climate change is having and will have a wide-ranging impact on Ireland’s environment, society and economic development, including on our ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, health and coastal zones. Short-term risks to Ireland from climate change are primarily associated with changes in extremes, such as floods, droughts and storms. Although there are uncertainties about the specific local impacts of climate change, a wait-and-see approach is not an option given the severity of these risks. Planned adaptation, which involves making decisions and implementing measures within society to respond to the adverse impacts of and avail of the opportunities presented by climate change, is essential to avoid an unacceptable level of risk. From a societal perspective, the EPA’s Climate Change in the Irish Mind project shows that people are positive about climate action in Ireland. People accept the science on climate change and understand that action is needed. However, while fairness and a just transition are highly valued, many have practical concerns about climate policies. Ongoing engagement and communication are vital to ensuring that policy is designed effectively so that the right path is also the easiest path for citizens.