Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

315 Chapter 12: Environment and Energy This target is expected to increase, given that the EU 2030 target has increased from 32% to 42.5%. In addition, Ireland must retain the baseline (of 16%, i.e. the 2020 target) and meet interim trajectory points in 2022, 2025 and 2027 (20.9%, 27.6% and 33.6%, respectively). In 2023, Ireland achieved a 14% renewable share, falling significantly short of the agreed targets (SEAI, 2024a). The EU Energy Efficiency Directive (2023/1791) compels Member States to collectively ensure a 11.7% reduction in energy consumption by 2030, compared with the projections of the EU reference scenario 2020 (EC, 2021a,b). This establishes an effective cap on EU energy use of 8874 TWh by 2030. The indicative target for Ireland is a 2030 final energy demand of 115 TWh. This is approximately 18% below Ireland’s energy demand in 2022. This is very challenging in the context of Ireland’s projected economic and population growth in the period to 2030. Based on Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) projections of energy demand, Ireland’s energy use is projected to exceed the indicative cap by between 19% and 31% in 2030. National policy In addition to meeting targets agreed at EU level, Ireland has established a strong legislative and policy framework in recent years that is impacting energy supply and demand trends. The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 provides for an ambitious 51% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, compared with 2018 levels. To achieve this aim, legally binding carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings have been put in place across all sectors, including the key energy sectors of electricity, transport, industry and buildings. These issues are explored in more detail in Chapter 4. The electricity sector has made significant achievements in terms of emission reductions over the past 20 years relative to other sectors and was allocated an ambitious sectoral emissions ceiling of 40 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO 2 eq) in the period 2021-2025. By 2023, electricity had expended 68% of the sectoral ceiling, a higher share than any other sector. There was a significant 21.6% reduction in emissions in 2023, however. As a result, emissions will need to reduce by 10% per annum in 2024 and 2025 to stay within the ceiling. The greatest progress towards sectoral emissions ceilings for energy-related emissions has been observed in energy in buildings – both residential and commercial and public buildings. Emissions released in the period 2021- 2023 accounted for 62% of the 29 Mt CO 2 eq sectoral emissions ceiling for the residential sector and 61% of the 7 Mt CO 2 eq for the commercial and public buildings sector. Residential sector emissions could increase slightly in the period 2024-2025 and still remain within the sectoral emissions ceiling. In addition to improving energy efficiency by switching to lower carbon fuels, electrification will play a key role in the decarbonisation of transport and heating (in both buildings and industry). Electrification transfers emissions from transport and heating to electricity, increasing the challenge in meeting the electricity sectoral emissions ceiling. This points to the need for unprecedented deployment rates of renewable energy and grid infrastructure, requiring urgent action by all relevant stakeholders. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) GHG emission projections indicate that current planned measures will fall short of achieving the sectoral emissions ceiling goals (EPA, 2024d). CAP24 outlines goals for heating, transport and renewable energy, focusing on solar and onshore and offshore wind generation. It also identifies further areas for development in the second half of the decade, including the role of hydrogen, in line with the National Hydrogen Strategy ‘the role of interconnector capacity in increasing low-carbon power supply through deeper integration of cross-border electricity markets; building out low-carbon flexibility opportunities such as long- duration energy storage; and deploying sustainable biofuels, in line with EU regulations, in hard-to-abate transport sectors such as domestic aviation and maritime. 6. Ireland’s energy supply Ireland’s energy supply, generally referred to as total primary energy requirement (TPER), is the amount of energy used in Ireland each year. This includes the energy requirements for the conversion of primary energy sources into energy used by the final consumer, for example electricity generation, oil refining and peat briquetting. In 2023, Ireland’s TPER fell 1.7% to 164 TWh of energy compared with 2022, with 82.8% of energy supply coming from fossil fuels (SEAI, 2024b). This is the lowest level of TPER in over 20 years, with the exception of 2020, when COVID-19-related travel restrictions significantly reduced demand for petrol, diesel and jet kerosene. The year 2023 also saw record use of renewable energy in Ireland at 14% of TPER. The fuel breakdown of TPER for 2023 is presented in Figure 12.4. Over three-quarters of Ireland’s energy came from oil and gas in 2023, with 48.8% of energy from oil used for heating and transport, with small amounts also used for electricity generation. Ireland used 35.5% less