Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

291 Chapter 11: Environment and Transport leading to a cumulative projected deficit of approximately 5 Mt CO 2 eq relative to the sector’s 37 Mt CO 2 eq carbon budget for the 2026–2030 period. The NTA has modelled the potential effectiveness of various measures in attaining a 50% reduction in transport sector emissions by 2030 to examine the potential impacts for the climate action plans (Figure 11.12). Overall, the modelling identified that fleet improvements (e.g. a move to BEVs) along with enhanced use of biofuels could yield substantial benefits. It was, however, clear from the modelling that a reduction in emissions of over 2 Mt CO 2 eq will need to come from behaviour changes. Figure 11.12  Predicted reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, 2018–2030 (pathway to a 50% reduction by 2030) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ˜ Car ˜ Heavy goods vehicle ˜ Light goods vehicle ˜ Other ˜ Public Transport (road) ˜ Public Transport (rail) ˜ Domestic aviation Include ‘behaviour change measures’ Include ‘NRN speed limit reduction’ Include ‘biofuels’ Include ‘fleet improvements’ Include 2030 ‘business- as-usual’ 2018 emissions Year 6.10 2.18 0.99 2.37 6.73 2.91 2.85 1.00 3.74 2.62 0.78 1.99 3.38 2.26 0.67 1.75 3.26 2.26 0.67 1.74 2.31 1.99 0.59 1.07 Mt CO 2 eq. 0.02% 0.13% 0.41% 0.02% 0.13% 0.40% 0.02% 0.06% 0.08% 0.02% 0.06% 0.07% 0.02% 0.06% 0.07% 0.02% 0.06% 0.07% Source NTA, 2023c Emissions of air pollutants from transport sources The transport sector has substantial negative impacts on the environment and human health. The majority of the emissions to air from transport in Ireland arise from diesel and petrol consumed by private cars and HGVs. Transport is one of the key sectors covered under the National Emission Reduction Committments Directive ((EU) 2016/2284), whic h aims to reduce emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants (for more detail, see Chapter 2). In Ireland, transport (and mainly road transport) is the second biggest source of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), contributing approximately 34.8% of the total in 2022 and is a smaller contributor of particulate matter (12.5%) (EPA, 2024c). As many transport emissions occur close to people in our towns and cities, they are of particular concern from a human health perspective. This issue is covered in more detail in Chapters 2 and 14. Transport emissions accounted for 2.6% of total national emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds, mainly from exhaust and fugitive releases from petrol vehicles. Road transport saw a decline in NO x emissions of 25.6 kt, or 44.2%, between 2008 and 2022 due to the economic recession initially and improvements in vehicle technology in later years. The COVID-19 restrictions had a significant impact in 2020 and 2021 (EPA, 2024c). Ireland’s emission reduction commitment for 2030 is set as a percentage reduction on 2005 emission levels; for NO x the reduction was set at 69% by 2030 under the NEC Directive. Projections of NO x emissions for all years to 2030 suggest that Ireland will comply with these emission reduction commitments (EPA, 2024c).