Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

290 Chapter 11: Environment and Transport Figure 11.11  Estimated transport sector greenhouse gas emissions under a business-as-usual scenario. Units expressed as Mt CO 2 eq 12.2 12.97 14.04 2018 emissions 2025 business-as-usual projections 2030 business-as-usual projections In 2023, transport sector GHG emissions increased slightly by 0.3% compared with 2022, although they remained below pre-COVID levels at 11.2 Mt CO 2 eq. This small rise in emissions is in the context of a 6% increase in both 2021 and 2022 as transport sector emissions rebounded following the ending of COVID-19 travel restrictions. Despite this rebound, transport emissions in 2023 were still 4.3% below pre-COVID levels (EPA, 2024a). It is projected that emissions from HGVs and light goods vehicles will account for 52% of total transport emissions by 2030 and 87% by 2050 as a result of growth in goods services and a reduction in emissions from passenger transport (EPA, 2024b). Emissions from freight transport via maritime shipping, rail and inland waterways are significantly lower than those from freight carried by HGVs (EEA, 2021). In 2023, Ireland’s international marine navigation emissions totalled 0.4 Mt CO 2 eq, a 1.4% decrease from 2022 (EPA, 2024a). These emissions are not included in Ireland’s total emissions figure. In the case of international aviation, total emissions in 2023 were 3.43 Mt CO 2 eq with only a small fraction of those attributed to transport of cargo (EPA, 2024a). The National Transport Authority (NTA) has estimated that transport emissions would grow from 12 Mt CO 2 eq in 2018 to 14 Mt CO 2 eq by 2030 if no action was taken to curb them (Figure 11.11) Ireland has identified measures aimed at reducing transport emissions by 50% by 2030 (as against 2018) in its Climate Action Plan. Staying within carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings is required by law and is Ireland’s contribution to curbing climate change. While practices such as enhanced levels of hybrid and remote working that were established during the pandemic may have disrupted some linkages between transport and economic activity, the strong rebound in transport demand and associated 6% growth in transport emissions witnessed in 2022 reflects the rapid return to economic growth, full employment and continued population growth in Ireland. About two-thirds (64.1%) of the first sectoral carbon budget was expended in the period 2021–2023. While this level could be consistent with the sector complying with its carbon budget to 2025, it would require a consistent decrease in emissions from the level in 2023 in both 2024 and 2025. Over the period to 2025, the capacity to deliver large-scale mitigation measures by providing major new public transport (PT) infrastructure and services, or by significantly shifting the composition of the vehicle fleet to zero-emission alternatives, is limited. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projections show a potential cumulative 5-year overshoot of approximately 1 Mt CO 2 eq of the sector’s first carbon budget by 2025 if further corrective action is not taken. Furthermore, EPA projections for the second carbon budget period suggest that this level of overshoot continues over the 2026–2030 period,