Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

251 Chapter 10: Environment and Agriculture Over the last three decades, emissions were at their lowest in 2011 at 18.5 Mt CO 2 eq (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), associated with a decrease in the national cattle herd to 6.43 million animals and a decrease in nitrogen fertiliser application to just under 300,000 tonnes. Over the following decade to 2021, emissions increased with the removal of milk quotas and the growth in the sector under Food Harvest 2020 and Food Wise 2025, but since then total emissions have started to decrease. In 2023, the national cattle 1 www.gov.ie/en/publication/07fbe-ag-climatise-a-roadmap-towards-climate-neutrality/ (accessed 2 September 2024) herd comprised 7.25 million animals, and under 281,000 tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser were applied; in 2023 the national greenhouse gas emissions from the sector were 20.8 Mt CO 2 eq. Emissions from agriculture include carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. Of these, methane is the most potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere, and it is the most prevalent in Ireland due to the scale of our livestock sector (Table 10.1). Table 10.1  Emissions from agriculture and changes over time Greenhouse gas Agricultural activity Contribution to agricultural emissions in 2023 and trend since 1990 Carbon dioxide Emissions from liming, the application of urea fertiliser and fuel combustion 6.6% of agricultural emissions Increase of 14.3% Nitrous oxide Emissions from manure management and agricultural soils 21.3% of agricultural emissions Decrease of 11.9% Methane Emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management 72.1% of agricultural emissions Increase of 4.8% Source: EPA, 2024a Under the national Climate Action Plan 2024 (DECC, 2023), the agriculture sector must achieve a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The total emissions from the sector are projected to decrease by between 1% and 18% over the period 2022–2030, depending on the measures that are implemented. Savings are projected from a variety of measures, including limiting usage and switching to different chemical fertilisers, methane reduction measures, and water table management (EPA, 2024b). Significant reductions in chemical nitrogen fertiliser use have already been achieved, from 408,000 tonnes in 2018 to less than 281,000 tonnes in 2023. However, it is projected as part of the modelling carried out to support the Teagasc MACC 2023 that, under the current policy framework, dairy cow numbers are likely to increase between 2022 and 2030 (Lanigan et al ., 2023), which will add additional emissions. These will be offset to some degree by further projected declines in beef cow numbers and an overall slight decline in the national herd. The latest EPA projections suggest that, based on best available knowledge, there is scope to reduce emissions by 18% by 2030 (compared with 2018), through the full implementation of the measures set out in the Climate Action Plan 2024 and the Ag Climatise roadmap 1 produced by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM). This means the sector is not on track to meet the 25% emission reduction target by 2030. Further measures still need to be identified and implemented to achieve this goal. Diversification measures are included in the Teagasc MACC 2023, which could save a further 1.5 Mt CO 2 eq by 2030 according to Teagasc; however, policy levers need to be put in place so that the savings proposed can be realised and maintained.