Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

98 Chapter 4: Climate Change At 17.8% below the previous lowest level in 2014, and 7.1% below 2022 levels, 2023 represents a new low point for residential sector emissions across the entire inventory time series since 1990. Notably, there were 6.2% fewer heating degree days in 2023 (i.e. the winter was warmer) than in 2022, and this, along with fuel prices and new solid fuel regulations, led to emissions per household in 2023 reducing to a new historic low of 2.8 tonnes CO 2 eq. Emissions from the residential sector are projected to decrease by 15% and 27% between 2022 and 2030 under the With Existing Measures and With Additional Measures scenarios, respectively. The more ambitious With Additional Measures scenario assumes the full implementation of the measures in Ireland’s 2024 Climate Action Plan, which includes the installation of 680,000 heat pumps by 2030, the retrofitting of homes to achieve the cost-optimal equivalent of a ‘B2’ building energy rating in 500,000 dwellings by 2030, no new oil (from 2022) or gas (from 2025) boilers being installed in new dwellings and district heating growing to 1.2 TWh in 2030 in this sector. Land use, land use change and forestry LULUCF emissions increased by 12.0% between 1990 and 2023. It has historically been the convention internationally that when referring to a country’s ‘total emissions’ LULUCF is excluded (as above). However, given its inclusion in Ireland’s Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 targets, it is worthwhile also considering total emissions including LULUCF. LULUCF emissions in Ireland in 2023 were a net source of emissions amounting to 5.61 Mt CO 2 eq. Total LULUCF emissions increased by 40.9% between 2022 and 2023, mainly as a result of lower emissions from wetlands and increased removals from the forestry category. When LULUCF is included in the national total, it represents 9.3% of total emissions and is the fourth largest source of greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 4.12). This is unusual internationally, where the LULUCF sector is commonly a sink, providing net CO 2 removals on an annual basis. In Ireland, however, this sector was a net source of emissions in all years from 1990 to 2023. This is due to the large areas of drained organic soils including grasslands on peat, and the exploitation of wetlands for peat extraction. Significant emissions are reported from these land use categories that are greater than the removals resulting from forestry or other land uses. In addition, there has been a considerable long-term decline in the area of land afforested annually, an increase in the level of harvest and an increase in emissions from forestry on organic soils, resulting in a reduction in the contribution of the forest land sector to the removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere. Afforestation rates have declined from an estimated 17,000 hectares annually in the 1990s to an estimated 1650 hectares by 2023, well below rates suggested in the 2024 Climate Action Plan, resulting in a decrease in the carbon sink provided by land converted to forest land. Forest land remaining as forest land is transitioning from a sink to an emissions source due to an increase in the level of harvest, from 1.7 million m 3 in 1990 to 4.0 million m 3 annually in recent years. Further increases in the level of harvest are projected as the forest estate matures. Figure 4.12  Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2023, including land use, land use change and forestry ˜ 1.4% Waste ˜ 9.3% Land use, land use change and forestry ˜ 12.9% Energy industries ˜ 8.8% Residential ˜ 6.8% Manufacturing combustion ˜ 1.2% Commercial services ˜ 1.1% Public services ˜ 19.5% Transport ˜ 3.6% Industrial processes ˜ 1.2% F-gases ˜ 34.3% Agriculture Year 2023 F-gases, fluorinated gases. Source: EPA, 2024b