Ireland's State of the Environment Report 2024

97 Chapter 4: Climate Change ■ Avoid measures aim to result in a 20% reduction in total vehicle kilometres by 2030. Additional work is still needed in future climate action plans to set out how this reduction will be achieved. The proposed measure of a 65% increase in the pump price of petrol and diesel from 2018 to 2030 as part of the 20% reduction in total vehicle kilometres is not included in the latest EPA projections. ■ Shift measures aim to achieve a 50% increase in daily active travel journeys by 2030 along with a 130% increase in public transport journeys. ■ Improve measures build on those in the Climate Action Plan and would see 845,000 passenger car electric vehicles registered by 2030 (30% share of total passenger car fleet) along with a 20% electric vehicle share of the large goods vehicle fleet and 30% zero emissions share of new heavy goods vehicles. Energy emissions. Energy sector 8 emissions decreased by 30.8% from 1990 to 2023. Over this period, emissions specifically from electricity generation decreased by 32.1%, whereas total electricity consumption increased by 164%. Emissions from electricity generation increased from 1990 to 2001 by 54.3% and have decreased by 56.0% between 2001 and 2022. This decrease reflects the improved efficiency of modern gas-fired power plants, which have replaced older peat- and oil-fired plants, and the increased share of renewables, primarily wind power, along with increased interconnectivity. 2023 was the lowest year in the 34-year time series for peat-fired electricity generation, 39% less than in 2022. These reductions reflect the gradual ending of peat- fired electricity generation for market and climate policy reasons. Emissions from electricity generation decreased year-on-year from 2016 to 2020, but they increased in 2021 by 19% compared with 2020 due to an increase in coal and oil use, driven by a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine. Coal use in electricity generation decreased by 44.0% in 2023 compared with 2022. Sectoral emissions in the energy industries sector show a decrease of 21.6% in 2023, the largest annual change in emissions ever recorded for the sector, and are now at an all-time low across the 1990-2023 time series at 7.8 Mt CO 2 eq. This reduction in emissions is partly due to a 12-fold increase in the amount of imported electricity, accounting for 9.5% of electricity supply in 2023. Imported electricity amounted to 3275 GWh, which would have resulted in additional emissions of over 1 Mt CO 2 eq if generated in Ireland. There was an increase in the renewable share in electricity generation, 8 The majority of emissions within energy industries come from power generation and are largely regulated under the EU ETS. In addition, emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels, petroleum refining (also largely included within the ETS) and fugitive emissions are included. which rose from 38.6% to 40.7% from 2022 to 2023, with wind accounting for 33.7% of electricity supply (up from 33.1%). In terms of projections, emissions from the energy sector are projected to decrease by 57% and 62% over the period 2022-2030 under the With Existing Measures and With Additional Measures scenarios, respectively. Under the more ambitious With Additional Measures scenario, it is estimated that renewable electricity generation will increase by at least 80% by 2030 (as per the 2024 Climate Action Plan). Measures for the electricity sector are intended to limit emissions over the first two carbon budget periods to 40 Mt CO 2 eq, for 2021-2025, and 20 Mt CO 2 eq, for 2026-2030. Achieving this is expected to reduce annual emissions from the sector to 3 Mt CO 2 eq by 2030 (a 75% reduction compared with 2018). Planned mitigation measures for electricity are categorised across three broad headings: ■ Accelerating renewable energy generation: this covers the scale-up of renewable electricity generation to reach 80% of electricity demand by 2030. ■ Accelerating flexibility: these measures aim to facilitate the acceleration of renewable generation and include long-term storage, being able to facilitate 95-100% of renewables on the grid at any point in time, electricity generation from biomethane and hydrogen, and increased electricity interconnection capacity. ■ Demand management: the measures on the demand side are aimed at ensuring zero growth in carbon demand and 20-30% demand-side flexibility by 2030. Residential emissions. Residential sector emissions cover emissions from fuel combustion in households for domestic space and hot water heating. Over the period 1990-2023, residential sector emissions decreased by 29.4%. Increased housing stock and a growing population drove a gradual upwards trend in these emissions after 1997 following emissions reductions in the early 1990s due to fuel switching. Following a decline from 2010 to 2014, emissions remained relatively stable from 2015 to 2021 despite an increasing population. The number of households increased by 88.6% and the population increased by 50.7% between 1990 and 2023, with winter heating demand remaining an important annual variable driving emissions from this sector.