EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Chapter 2: Climate Change 6. Near-term Responses and Long-term Transition Transition to climate neutrality and climate resilience requires investment in planning and implementation of mitigation and adaptation responses. The mitigation of climate change through reducing GHG emissions and adaptation to its consequences will affect all sectors of the economy and society. Responses are needed across the whole of government, business and society. The pathways to achieving climate neutrality and resilience by 2050 should also be made clear to all of society. Effective policy implementation will be required to achieve transition, including meeting 2030 and 2050 targets. Securing societal support for actions requires that the national vision, objectives and potential opportunities are clearly set out and communicated. Towards a Climate-neutral Resilient Society The temperature goal established in the Paris Agreement frames global GHG emissions during this century. The Paris Agreement also recognises the importance of removals in achievement of that goal. Ireland’s GHG emissions trajectory to 2050 is expected to follow pathways that are compatible with the Paris Agreement and the EU climate neutrality goal. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018) has outlined that globally this requires that carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions between 2045 and 2080 (see section 3). Emissions of non-carbon dioxide GHGs and other warming agents, such as black carbon (diesel/soot), are also reduced but do not reach zero. CDR technologies, including removals by terrestrial sinks such as forests, are needed to offset any overshoot in carbon dioxide emissions and to offset the emissions of non-carbon dioxide GHGs that cannot be reduced to net zero. For the EU to achieve climate neutrality these are to be achieved by 2050. This implies that net zero carbon dioxide is achieved earlier and that large-scale carbon dioxide removals are in place by 2050. This requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, built environment and infrastructure, including transport and buildings and industrial systems. These are unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms of speed. The IPCC (2019) highlighted that planned actions by Parties to 2030 were not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal. The annual United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report for 2019 (UNEP, 2019) indicated that an annual global emissions reduction from 2020 of 7.6 per cent would be needed to meet the 1.5° C Paris goal. Both the IPCC and UNEP have highlighted the importance of near-term actions (i.e. actions in the period to 2030) to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal and to avoid reliance on very large-scale removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which would be high risk. For Ireland, near-term actions have been outlined in the 2019 Climate Action Plan. This plan has a focus on sectoral accountability, which is important in terms of assigning clear lines of responsibility for delivery of actions. In addition, in terms of project appraisal and implementation across the sectors, the recent reforms to the Public Spending Code will drive public expenditure towards lower carbon options and prevent lock-in to high- carbon alternatives. An appropriate price for carbon will also be central to driving low-carbon investment and, in this regard, the commitment in the Climate Action Plan to increase the price of carbon to €80/tonne by 2030 must be supported through increases over the period between now and 2030. In 2018, Ireland was 89 per cent dependent on fossil fuels, which will need to change if Ireland is to meet its low-carbon ambitions. The Climate Action Plan commits to phasing out fossil fuels and in particular ending the burning of coal in the Electricity Supply Board (ESB) Moneypoint generation plant by 2025. Bord na Móna announced in June 2020 that all peat harvesting is to be suspended and that work will commence on an Enhanced Peatland Rehabilitation Scheme. 9 This will accelerate the transition away from peat, with Lough Ree and West Offaly power plants to close by the end of 2020 and Edenderry expected to transition to 100 per cent biomass fuel. Exiting from coal and peat burning (including co-firing with biomass) in energy production will drive decarbonisation in transport, residential and other sectors with a high dependence on electricity and deliver co-benefits in terms of air quality. 9 https://www.bordnamona.ie/company/news/articles/bord-na-mona-to- commence-enhanced-peatland-rehabilitation-scheme/ 49