EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Ireland’s Environment – An Integrated Assessment 2020 5. Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Natural and Managed Ecosystems, Forests, Sectors and Infrastructures, and Social and Economic Impacts Climate change will have diverse and wide-ranging impacts on Ireland’s environment, society, economic sectors and natural resources. In general, the climate trends observed in Ireland follow the global average. For Ireland, mid-century mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by between 1.0°C and 1.6°C depending on the emissions trajectory. Heat wave events are expected to increase by mid-century and this will have a direct impact on public health and mortality. These changes may affect the phenological phases in many plant and animal species. By mid-century there are projected increases in both dry periods and heavy precipitation events, meaning that we will have to consider increased flood risk and droughts risks. There is also the possibility that, although the average wind speed may decrease, the intensity of individual storms may increase (Nolan, 2015). Building performance will be challenged by a changing climate and will need to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns. This will require appropriate design and building standards, as well as adaptation of the existing building stock. As our climate changes, it will create new conditions that may allow existing pests and diseases to spread and new threats to become established in Ireland. Our infrastructure (e.g. electricity, water, communications, transport) are likely to be affected by an increase in disruptive events, and our water quality and supply might be affected. Global mean sea level rise by 2100 is likely to be in the range of 0.29-1.10 m (depending on the emissions scenario) and sea levels will continue to rise far beyond the year 2100 (IPCC, 2019a). The coastal zone is a critical environment for Ireland, as an island, with 1.9 million people living within 5 km of the coast (CSO, 2017). Predicted changes in mean sea level will be magnified by changing storm surge and wave patterns in coastal areas. Sea level rise varies regionally but increasing sea levels around Ireland would result in increased coastal erosion and flooding and damage to property and infrastructure. For example, in Limerick, an estimated 1122 residential properties and 248 business properties are currently at risk from flooding during a 1-in-200- year event. With a sea level rise of 1 m, the number of residential and business properties at risk would more than double (OPW, 2019). Therefore, continuing to build the resilience of our coasts and furthering our understanding of sea level rise in a changing climate is essential (Desmond et al. , 2017). Ireland has experienced several extreme weather events in recent years, including flooding, droughts and ex-Hurricane Ophelia in 2017 (Photo 2.1), which was the first strong East Atlantic hurricane on record ever to reach Ireland. These events reveal the cost of extreme weather events and the vulnerabilities of our society and economy. For example, between 2014 and 2018 local authorities spent approximately €101 million responding to extreme weather events, such as Storm Darwin in 2014, ex-Hurricane Ophelia in 2017 and Storm Emma and Storm Eleanor in 2018 (Clarke and O’Donoghue-Hynes, 2020). A review of severe weather in 2017 and 2018 by the National Directorate for Fire and Emergency Management highlights how a ‘domino’ effect can affect services during extreme events (e.g. when power outages affect water services or blocked roads impede access to damaged communications masts) (National Directorate for Fire and Emergency Management, 2020). Such interdependencies and cascading impacts must inform adaptation planning. Photo 2.1  Storm Ophelia approaching Ireland (Source: Met Éireann, EUMETSAT METEOSAT High Resolution Visible Satellite image on Monday 16 October 2017 at 11:30 IST) It is vital that policymakers, but also households, businesses and the public sector, consider the lessons from events such as these, given that they may become more frequent in a changing climate. 48