EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Ireland’s Environment – An Integrated Assessment 2020 Figure 2.4  Compliance status of Ireland’s emissions over the period 2013-2020 (Source: EPA, 2020b) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ETS emissions ESD emissions Million tonnes CO 2 eq 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 2020 EU AEAs 2013-2020 46.892 45.761 44.630 43.499 40.885 39.807 38.729 37.651 The latest emission projections indicate that Ireland’s ESD emissions are projected to be 2 per cent and 4 per cent below 2005 levels in 2020 under the ‘with existing measures’ and ‘with additional measures’ scenarios, respectively (EPA, 2020c). The impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on 2020 emissions is not included in these figures, as this will be incorporated into the next round of projections. The dramatic decline in economic activity and travel will translate into emissions reductions in the short term, particularly affecting transport and electricity generation emissions. It is very unlikely, however, that the impact on emissions in 2020 will be sufficient for Ireland to avoid needing to purchase allowances or credits to achieve compliance for the full 2013 to 2020 ESD period. Figure 2.4 shows the compliance status of emissions over the period 2013-2020. Ireland’s 2030 target is to reduce GHG emissions by 30 per cent compared with 2005 levels, with annual limits ensuring the required downwards trajectory to 2030. The Climate Action Plan 2019 has indicated the government’s intention to make full use of the LULUCF regulation flexibility. Projections published in 2020 indicate that under the ‘with existing measures’ scenario Ireland will exceed the carbon budget of 378.3 Mt CO 2 eq by 50.8 Mt CO 2 eq over the period 2021-2030, assuming that the LULUCF regulation flexibility is fully utilised. If the ETS flexibility is also used, the exceedance will reduce to 32 Mt CO 2 eq. Under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario, the projections indicate that Ireland will have a surplus of approximately 8.9 Mt CO 2 eq over the period 2021-2030, assuming that the LULUCF regulation flexibility is fully utilised. If the ETS flexibility is also used, the surplus would increase to 27.8 Mt CO 2 eq. The National Policy Position and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2050 There are major challenges for Ireland to meet the ambitions set out for significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions, achieving carbon neutrality in agriculture, maximising land use as a carbon sink and meeting a net zero emissions target by 2050. The National Policy Position (DCCAE, 2014) envisages an aggregate reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of at least 80 per cent (compared with 1990 levels) by 2050 across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors. In parallel, an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production, is envisaged. The Climate Action Plan builds on this, putting in place a mitigation pathway to 2030, which would be consistent with the adoption of a net zero target in Ireland by 2050. The Climate Action Plan also commits to evaluating in detail the changes that would be necessary in Ireland to achieve this target. 46