EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Chapter 2: Climate Change Emissions projections show transport emissions decreasing by 11.6 per cent over the period 2021-2030 to 11.2 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with existing measures‘ scenario. Emissions are projected to decrease by 38.6 per cent over the period 2021-2030 to 7.6 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario, which assumes that 936,000 electric vehicles, including approximately 840,000 passenger cars, will be on the road by 2030. Further information on the climate impact of the transport sector and the future mobility challenge is presented in Chapter 11. Energy Industries In 2019, emissions from energy industries have decreased by 11.2 per cent on 2018, mainly because of the replacement of coal and peat with natural gas and wind generated electricity. Overall, GHG emissions from energy industries accounted for 15.8 per cent of Ireland’s national total emissions in 2019. This sector, which mainly covers power generation, oil and natural gas refining, showed a decrease in emissions of 16.6 per cent over the period 1990-2019. Over this time period, emissions from electricity generation have decreased by 18.0 per cent, whereas total electricity consumption has increased by 139.5 per cent. This decrease reflects the improvement in efficiency of modern gas fired power plants replacing older peat and oil-fired plants and the increased share of renewables, primarily, wind power along with increased interconnectivity. This year was the lowest year in the 30-year time series for coal fired electricity generation, 70% less than in 2018, and the lowest year in the last 15 years for peat fired electricity, 8% less than 2018. These reductions reflect the gradual ending of coal and peat fired electricity generation for market and climate policy reasons. Projections show emissions from energy industries decreasing by 23.3 per cent between 2021 and 2030 to 8.7 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with existing measures’ scenario. Emissions from energy industries are projected to decrease by 40.2 per cent between 2021 and 2030 to 7.0 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario. Under this scenario it is estimated that the share of renewable energy generation will increase to approximately 70 per cent by 2030. Combined fossil energy use across transport, heating and industry, including electricity generation, consistently makes up Ireland’s largest source of GHG emissions; in 2019 this was 35.2 Mt CO 2 eq. Residential Sector Greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector accounted for over 10.9 per cent of Ireland’s total national emissions in 2019. Improvements in the building standards and insulation of older buildings and the shift to less carbon-intensive fuels have driven emissions reductions in this sector but further work is needed. Emissions from the residential sector were 13.2 per cent lower in 2019 than their 1990 level while the housing stock increased by 78 per cent in the same period. The improved emissions profile of the residential sector reflects major improvements in the building standards and insulation of older buildings and also the shift from carbon intensive fossil fuels (coal and peat). However, the sector remains highly dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas. Winter heating demand is the most important variable determining emissions from this sector. Emissions projections show emissions from the residential sector decreasing by 15.5 per cent between 2021 and 2030 to 5.3 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with existing measures’ scenario (EPA, 2020c). Emissions are projected to decrease by 52.4 per cent between 2021 and 2030 to 2.9 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario. This scenario assumes full implementation of the measures in Ireland’s Climate Action Plan, which include upgrades to homes, deep retrofits and significant supports for domestic heat pumps. Meeting European Union and International Commitments Ireland will likely need to rely on purchasing credits or allowances in order to comply with its 2020 targets. The EU’s ESD (Decision 406/2009/EC) sets 2020 targets for sectors outside the ETS – mainly agriculture, transport, residential, commercial and waste emissions – with annual binding limits for the period 2013-2020 (EU, 2009). Ireland’s target was to reduce these emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels while meeting the annual limits each year to ensure that emissions were on the required trajectory to 2020. Compliance under the ESD has been assessed for 6 years from 2013 to 2018, and 2019 will be assessed in 2021. The latest figures show that in 2019 Ireland exceeded its annual EU emissions budget for the fourth year in a row, by almost 7 million tonnes, and is therefore not on the pathway required to meet its 2020 targets. 45