EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Ireland’s Environment – An Integrated Assessment 2020 Figure 2.3  Sectoral contribution to overall GHG emissions in 2019 (Source: EPA, 2020b) Energy Industries Residential Manufacturing Combustion Commercial Services Public Services Transport Industrial Processes F-Gases Agriculture Waste 15.8% 10.9% 7.7% 20.3% 3.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 35.3% 1.5% The share of carbon dioxide in total GHG emissions increased to 62.2 per cent in 2019 compared with 60.6 per cent in 1990. In contrast, methane and nitrous oxide emissions, primarily from the agriculture sector, fell from 39.4 per cent of total GHG emissions in 1990 to 36.0 per cent in 2019. Emissions from F-gases accounted for 1.8 per cent of the total in 2019. Ireland’s latest projections show total emissions decreasing by 6 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030 under the ‘with existing measures’ scenario. This scenario assumes that no additional policies and measures beyond those already in place by the end of 2018 are implemented. Under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario, emissions are estimated to decrease by 25 per cent by 2030. This scenario assumes implementation of the ‘with existing measures’ scenario in addition to the implementation of planned government policies and measures adopted after the end of 2018. Importantly, this includes Ireland’s 2019 Climate Action Plan. The following sections provide a summary of the agriculture, transport and energy sectors; for a deeper analysis see Chapters 11-13. Agriculture Sector In 2019, GHG emissions from agriculture were 9.5 per cent above 1990 levels, mainly driven by a 16.1 per cent increase in methane emissions from enteric fermentation and a 21.8 per cent increase in emissions from manure management. Agriculture accounted for over one third (35.3%) of Ireland’s total national emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture accounted for 35.3 per cent of Ireland’s total national emissions in 2019. Over the period 1990-2019, after an initial rising trend in emissions in the 1990s, the sectoral emissions began to decrease steadily between 1998 until 2011. Since 2011, emissions have trended upwards again with an overall peak in emissions reported in 2018. In the last 10 years, dairy cow numbers have increased by 38.3 per cent with a corresponding milk production increase of 66.9 per cent. This reflects national plans to expand milk production under Food Wise 2025 and the removal of the milk quota in 2015. Emissions projections show that agricultural emissions are projected to increase by 3.5 per cent over the period 2021- 2030 to 21.1 Mt CO 2 eq under the ‘with existing measures’ scenario (scenario doesn’t assume any additional actions are taken by the sector). Under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario, emissions are projected to decrease by 11.3 per cent by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. The ‘with additional measures’ scenario assumes a total of 16.5 Mt CO 2 eq of mitigation over the period 2021-2030 with the implementation of Ireland’s Climate Action Plan, including those measures in the Teagasc marginal abatement cost curve (Lanigan et al. , 2019). Transport Emissions Increases in GHG emissions from transport have been recorded in 5 out of the last 7 years. they account for over 20 per cent of Ireland’s total national emissions in 2019. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport accounted for 20.3 per cent of Ireland’s total national emissions in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, emissions from transport showed the greatest overall increase, at 136.9 per cent, with road transport increasing 142.4 per cent. Transport emissions have decreased by 15.4 per cent below peak levels in 2007, primarily because of the economic downturn, improving vehicle fuel efficiency as a result of changes to the vehicle registration tax, the increase in use of biofuels and significant decreases in fuel tourism in recent years. However, more recently, increases in transport emissions have been recorded for 5 out of the last 7 years as the economy has grown and transport movements have increased. 44