EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Chapter 16: Conclusions STEP UP TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND US AS IT IS UNDER INCREASING THREAT SOE 4: Climate Systemic Change is Required for Ireland to Become the Climate-neutral and Climate-resilient Society and Economy that it Aspires to Be More urgency is needed to deliver actions on climate mitigation and adaptation and to ensure that Ireland meets its international obligations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While Ireland’s GHG emissions, with full implementation of the Climate Action Plan, are projected to decrease by an annual average reduction of 3 per cent between 2021 and 2030, further measures are required to meet national and EU ambitions to keep the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. To become a climate-neutral economy and society, as well as to achieve carbon neutrality in the agriculture sector, Ireland needs to urgently accelerate its efforts to reduce GHG emissions, implement climate mitigation strategies and rollout adaptation plans (Chapters 2, 11, 12 and 13). An urgent and just transition to the use of cleaner fuels and renewables for electricity generation, heating and transport is needed. A just transition away from fossil fuels and reducing GHG emissions means that the change must be just and inclusive, putting people first, and must pay attention to the regions, industries and workers who will face the greatest challenges (Chapter 2). Implementation will require authoritative, coherent and rigorous and transparent oversight, with ownership across sectors and society. This transition will have benefits for other environmental areas such as air quality, human health and biodiversity. Internationally, the Paris Agreement commits to GHG emissions reductions that are designed to keep global temperature increases this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Projections indicate that Ireland will not reach its 2020 obligations to reduce its share of GHG emissions (EPA, 2020b). The latest GHG data released by the EPA show that in 2019 Ireland exceeded its annual emissions allocation under the EU’s Effort Sharing Decision by almost 7 million tonnes, and is therefore not on the pathway required to meet its 2020 targets (EPA, 2020a). This follows exceedance of 5 million tonnes in 2018 and 3 million tonnes in 2017. These figures again show that Ireland is falling short in terms of lowering our emissions, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and playing our part in responding to global climate change which requires holding the increase in the global temperature to well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. As outlined for the past 2 years we need swift implementation of climate action measures to put Ireland on the right track to meet its commitments. No one sector is the sole target of the required emissions cuts; rather, wider system changes are needed across economic sectors. In Ireland, there is currently a significant gap between the allocated carbon budget for 2030 and the current situation in relation to GHG emissions. However, the latest EPA GHG emissions projections for the period 2019-2040 show that Ireland can meet its current EU target to reduce GHG emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 (EPA, 2020b). This will require full and accelerated implementation of the measures in the 2019 Climate Action Plan (DCCAE, 2019) and if we succeed would result in a 3 per cent average annual emissions reduction from 2021 to 2030. This implementation needs to start now and will require proactive implementation and greater ambition across government, the economy, industry, agriculture and society to reach 2030 targets. Ireland’s land and seas are going to be important factors in meeting the GHG targets through carbon storage on land under the ‘land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) regulation’ and renewable energy generation from wind offshore (Chapters 5, 12 and 13). The use of the land as a carbon sink for carbon sequestration will need to be developed, with clear evidence-based spatial plans and time frames for this work. Research is ongoing around the topic of LULUCF, which will be one of the key initiatives to help Ireland achieve its GHG emissions targets in the future. 437