EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Chapter 2: Climate Change Global Changes, Local Impacts The 2018 IPCC report Global Warming of 1.5°C reported that the global temperature had increased by 1.0°C relative to pre-industrial levels and that, at the current rate of warming, the world would reach a 1.5°C warming between 2030 and 2050 (IPCC, 2018). If continued, a 2°C increase could occur early in the second half of this century. The main features of such an increase are: n increase in average temperature (surface air temperature and sea surface temperature) n changes in precipitation patterns n changes in the rate of occurrence and scales of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, rainfall events, storms, sea surges and flash floods n slow-onset changes such as sea level rise, the loss of glaciers and ecosystem changes. Evidence of these changes is apparent around the world, as outlined in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2014). Key features are explored in detail in the 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (IPCC, 2019a). Across Europe, there has been an increase of almost 2°C since the latter half of the 19th century. 2 2 https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-temperature (accessed 5 October 2020) 3. International, European Union and National Policy Context The goals established in the 2015 Paris Agreement provide the basis for global actions on climate change; the EU Green Deal and its 2050 climate neutrality objective is a response to this. Ireland’s National Policy Position for 2050 was adopted ahead of the Paris Agreement but reflects elements of the ambition in that agreement. International Policy Context Ireland and the EU are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its 2015 Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement enters its implementation phase in 2020, and in doing so replaces the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as the framework for achievement of the objective of the UNFCCC, which is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The Paris Agreement established goals relating to temperature, climate resilience and financial flows. Specifically, these are to: n hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C n enhance adaptive capacity and foster climate resilience and low-emission development in a manner that does not threaten food production n make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development. To meet the temperature goal, global GHG emissions should be balanced with removals during this century. In order to achieve this, Parties to the Paris Agreement, including Ireland, have agreed to formulate long-term low GHG emission development strategies, which are to be communicated to the UNFCCC by 2020. At the EU level, the 2050 long-term strategy includes the 2050 Climate Neutrality Goal (EC, 2019a). This effectively guides the development of shorter term Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through which the Paris Agreement is implemented. NDCs, which set out GHG emissions and other targets, are communicated or updated every 5 years. Ireland’s contribution is included in the EU NDC. It is based on the 2030 emissions targets adopted by the EU. The adequacy of global NDCs in achieving the Paris Agreement goals will be assessed every 5 years under a global stocktake. The first global stocktake is scheduled to take place in 2023. 37