EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Ireland’s Environment – An Integrated Assessment 2020 3. Current Trends Greenhouse Gases and Agriculture On-farm agricultural practices accounted for 32.7 per cent of national total greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, with emissions mainly consisting of methane and nitrous oxide. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reporting guidelines on annual inventories for Parties included in Annex I to the Convention (UNFCCC, 2014) describe the scope and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions inventories. They specify the methodologies and procedures to be followed for submitting consistent and comparable data on an annual basis in a timely, efficient and transparent manner to meet the needs of the Convention. On farm agricultural practices accounted for 35.3 per cent of national greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, with emissions mainly consisting of methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from the management of manures, the application of manures to soil, the deposition of excreta by grazing animals and synthetic nitrogen fertiliser application to soils. In addition, carbon dioxide emissions arise from the application of urea and lime to soils (EPA, 2019b). Agricultural emissions are included in Ireland’s Effort Sharing Decision emissions reduction target for 2020 (EU, 2009) and the Effort Sharing Regulation target for 2030 (EU, 2018a). Both pieces of legislation govern only emissions from non-emissions trading scheme sectors, with agriculture currently accounting for up to 45 per cent of this total. The trend in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture (EPA, 2020a) is, as is the case for all gaseous emissions from the sector, largely determined by the size of the national cattle herd and application rates of nitrogen fertilisers. In 1990, greenhouse gas emissions from the sector were 19.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO 2 eq), which increased to 22.0 Mt CO 2 eq in 1998 in line with growth of the national cattle herd from 6.82 million animals in 1990 to 7.59 million animals in 1998. Over the same period nitrogen fertiliser application increased from 379,311 tonnes in 1990 to 431,999 tonnes in 1998. Emissions subsequently decreased to 18.5 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, with an associated decrease in the national cattle herd to 6.42 million animals and a decrease in nitrogen fertiliser application to 295,795 tonnes. Since then emissions have been on an upward trajectory as a result of the removal of milk quotas and the implementation of Food Wise 2025 and its predecessor Food Harvest 2020. In 2019 the national cattle herd included 7.11 million animals and 367,364 tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser were applied; in the same year the national greenhouse gas emissions from the sector were 21.2 Mt CO 2 eq. Under the Kyoto Protocol Ireland has elected to account for emissions and removals associated with the carbon pools in soil and biomass, which occur through the management of forests, grazing land and croplands. These estimates are dominated by significant carbon dioxide emissions from the drainage of organic/peaty soils, mainly in grasslands. The area involved is approximately 330,000 hectares and accounts for 8 per cent of the land area devoted to grassland. This means that, overall, Irish grassland is a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere when it could and should be a net sink. Up to 2030, this will become a major focus because of European legislation on emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry (EU, 2018b). Hedgerows and non-forest woody features and the biomass contained therein are currently receiving a lot of focus. Estimates suggest, however, that their inclusion in national emissions inventories is far outweighed by existing emissions sources, such as the drainage of organic/peaty soils in grasslands, which will need to be tackled through a programme of work to convert them to net carbon sinks. Hedgerows are, however, important for biodiversity and the Irish landscape and for these reasons alone their protection is warranted. Projections for the agriculture sector in the absence of any abatement measures suggest that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow steadily, mainly because of continued increases in the size of the dairy herd, and that by 2030 the contribution of agriculture to non-ETS emissions will be 50.0 per cent (EPA, 2020a) as efficiency gains and the effects of policies and measures are seen in other economic sectors. However, implemented and planned policies and measures are unlikely to change the status of the agriculture sector as a significant contributor to national emissions. It is forecast that dairy cow numbers will increase by 10.2 per cent between 2020 and 2030, reaching 1.64 million head, with a concurrent increase in nitrogen fertiliser use of 8.8 per cent over the same period. 332