EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Ireland’s Environment – An Integrated Assessment 2020 institutional participation of relevant local authorities with national Departments and agencies, and even harmonising climate-neutral policymaking with spatial and transport planning. National integration with emissions policy and modelling is exemplified by the German federal greenhouse gas-neutral plan to reduce transport emissions by 100 per cent by 2050, with 50 per cent based on avoid and shift (German Environment Agency, 2014). Long-term analysis is an enabler of long-term spatial and transport planning. Timescales of 30 years plus, to 2050 and beyond, allow the analysis, and ultimately policy planning, to envision the major system shifts that can overcome carbon lock-in. The current medium- term focus in mitigation, predominantly to 2030, also prevents full consideration of the key priority avoid and shift measures, some of which emerge more significantly from longer time horizons. A transformation focus includes avoid and shift measures, and can integrate the variety of policy objectives that are relevant to transport. By definition, this requires long- term scenarios that also analyse significant structural and systems change. In the political process that follows, by understanding these alternative pathways, and their environmental, social and economic implications, policymakers can then consider which path delivers the best outcomes, across all policy objectives. Topic Box 11.3 EPA Research Programme 2014-2020 Environment and Transport Since 2016, the EPA has funded up to 20 new research projects relevant to the Environment and Transport area, representing a commitment of €3.1 million. These projects were funded mostly under the Climate and Sustainability Pillars of the EPA Research Programme 2014-2020. Examples of EPA-funded research projects include research on n production of advanced gaseous biomethane transport fuel in an integrated circular bioenergy system n metrics of climate neutrality in the context of deep decarbonisation in Ireland by 2050 n critical infrastructure vulnerability to climate change n eco-driving: trends and potential impacts for Irish heavy-duty vehicles n emissions from and fuel consumption associated with off-road vehicles and other machinery n behavioural response to sustainable travel policy incentives. More information is available from http://www.epa.ie/researchandeducation/research/ Policies and Measures A reliance on measures for improving the energy and carbon efficiency of vehicles is evident in Irish policy. We also need to consider avoiding journeys where possible, through innovative spatial and transport planning for compact development, and for shifting to low-carbon transport systems of walking, cycling and public transport. While improving energy and carbon efficiency by technical means is a necessary approach, it is unlikely to deliver sustainable mobility or climate neutrality on its own. It is known that improving vehicle decarbonisation is required, including alternative powertrains and biofuels, yet it is also known that relying on these measures is not optimal, and may not even be feasible (Rogelj et al. , 2018; EEA, 2019a; McKinnon, 2019; Windisch, 2019). Relying on decarbonisation continues the path already seen in Ireland in recent decades. With insufficient action on avoid and shift, this could lead to an increase in the number of journeys by private car, truck and other road vehicles. This path would drive a range of negative side effects, directly linked to use of road vehicles, including air pollution, 11 noise, congestion and road traffic accidents, and impose unnecessary costs on human wellbeing, the economy and the environment. However, a comprehensive package of measures that could deliver an avoid and shift transformation, instead of marginal and efficiency change, has yet to be articulated for Ireland. The comprehensive approach in Germany, previously alluded to, is a useful example. The IPCC also provides a vital summary table of the ASI measures, assessing both short- and long-term possibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with their barriers and opportunities (Sims et al. , 2014, pp. 634-636). Considering that ASI exists as a hierarchy (see Figure 11.4), policy first needs to consider changes to spatial planning and demand management. This will require increased density for new development, and plans to deal with the legacy of lock-in from past urban sprawl and road- dominated infrastructure planning. The NPF envisages a shift away from a low-density business-as-usual development model, setting Ireland’s first brownfield development target, and at the same time may also enable a large degree of greenfield development, and more extensive housing provision in rural areas. The legislation underpinning the NPF commits the government to regular reviews of the NPF, offering further opportunities to enhance the level of ambition in relation to urban consolidation and avoidance of urban sprawl, as the 11 All roads vehicles produce particulates from tyre and brake wear. Although electric vehicles prevent particulates from engine fuel burning, they cannot prevent those other forms of air pollution. Electric vehicles also contribute to increased greenhouse gases in the countries in which they are produced. 292