EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Chapter 11: Environment and Transport n The plan notes an existing target for the addition of 500,000 active and public transport journeys 6 per day by 2035, and supporting projects. 7 Evidence is not available to determine whether reaching this journey target will accommodate growing demand or lead to an actual modal shift from private car. Pathways that pursue substantial modal shift are typically based on longer term transformation of transport systems and infrastructure (Sims et al. , 2014). n International evidence suggests that carbon taxes can complement regulatory measures, as part of an appropriate policy mix, but also have limitations, as passenger demand is ‘inelastic’ (Sims et al. , 2014). n Improving carbon efficiency, through raising biofuel blend rates to 10-12 per cent of petrol and diesel, can be effective, but has historically been subject to sustainability challenges (CCAC, 2019a). Compressed natural gas for road freight provides a marginal improvement on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions (Sims et al. , 2014). n The flagship measure in the plan, to increase electric vehicle numbers to 936,000, would require diffusion rates similar to those achieved in the world leader, Norway. 8 Although the latest EPA projections indicate that this measure, if successfully achieved in full, can significantly reduce both air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from transport, it is important that it be accompanied by measures to reduce demand and shift travel to active and public transport modes. Otherwise we may tackle the climate challenge by achieving ‘greener congestion’ with attendant long-term economic, health and wellbeing impacts. 6 Total public transport journeys in 2017 were 300.8 million (CSO, 2019b). 7 Projects include the National Transport Authority 2035 Strategy with MetroLink, the Dublin Area Rapir Transit (DART) Expansion Programme, BusConnects and the addition of 200 kilometres of segregated cycle lanes. 8 Increasing the number of electric vehicles, to 936,000 by 2030, is approximately one third of the current national fleet of 2.7 million in 2018. Important to considering the feasibility of reducing emissions is the proportion of the future fleet this may involve. This is not clear from the target. It is worth noting, that in the case of Norway, achieving such rates of diffusion required significant state supports. International evidence shows that some transport environmental pressures have been successfully addressed through environmental management, and that technical improvements can reduce some forms of air pollution. However, it also clearly shows that marginal and incremental efficiency is not sufficient to reduce transport greenhouse gas emissions, while also meeting the multiple social and economic objectives of transport. Delivering on this requires a ‘sustainable mobility transformation’. 289