EPA - Ireland's Environment, An Integrated Assessment - 2020

Ireland’s Environment – An Integrated Assessment 2020 Projections and Policies Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and making transport in Ireland sustainable require the implementation of fundamental and significant policy changes. As outlined in Chapter 2, the EPA has projected under its ‘with additional measures’ scenario that transport greenhouse gas emissions will peak at 12.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020. Table 11.2 illustrates a decline to 4.4 million tonnes in 2040, if the measures announced in the 2019 Climate Action Plan are fully implemented (EPA, 2020c). This projection involves a set of economic assumptions about how oil price affects energy demand, and the successful completion of all policies and measures in place at the time of the study. The EPA ‘with additional measures’ projection of 2020 foresees an average annual reduction in transport greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7 per cent per year to 2040. Assuming a drop in transport emissions by 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050 would require an average reduction of 4.2 per cent per year, indicating that the decarbonisation measures in the Climate Action Plan can be effective if fully and successfully implemented. Work on the latest EPA emissions projections started in late 2019 and they are underpinned by strong projected growth in key sectors of the economy. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is not included in these figures; for 2020, and probably for some time thereafter, it is expected that there will be a downward impact on both greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions, particularly NO x emissions. In April 2020 alone, petrol deliveries were over 72.5 per cent lower than in April 2019 and diesel deliveries almost 55.5 per cent lower (CSO, 2020c). As a result of reduced traffic, the EPA observed some significant decreases in the concentrations of nitrogen dioxide at urban traffic stations, with decreases of up to 50 per cent compared with the January average (EPA, 2020d). Staying at home and staying local reduce travel demand, benefiting air quality and helping to tackle climate change. In exiting from pandemic measures, it is important to be aware that the recovery steps will shape Ireland for decades, as is known to occur with major policy developments. Such junctures offer the opportunity to focus on climate action measures, as part of a green recovery stimulus, to rebuild our economy, generate new jobs and respond to climate change. Recognising that the emissions reductions required of transport are set to deepen, the national Climate Action Plan (Government of Ireland, 2019) established a number of new measures to meet the 2030 greenhouse gas targets for transport, while noting relevant measures already implemented. Five core areas can be highlighted from the Climate Action Plan: (i) compact development in spatial planning, (ii) shift to active and public transport, (iii) the carbon tax, (iv) biofuels and compressed natural gas and (v) electric vehicles. International evidence, including that from the IPCC, shows that: n Spatial planning for compact development, to avoid trips and minimise distances, can deliver significant emissions reductions (Sims et al. , 2014). Ireland’s National Planning Framework (NPF) aims for 40 per cent of future housing development to be within or close to the existing footprint of built-up areas (Government of Ireland, 2018). The balance is envisaged on a mix of sites, extending urban areas on sustainable transport corridors, and regeneration and renewal of rural towns and villages to arrest the decline of rural communities. This will be implemented through housing planning, local authority development plans and regional spatial and economic strategies, with independent scrutiny from the Office of the Planning Regulator. Local government will therefore play a key role in determining the actual outcome, in the mix of compact and dispersed development that arises. Table 11.2  EPA ‘with additional measures’ projection for Transport to 2040 Source: EPA (2020c) 1990 2005 2016 2018 2020 2030 2040 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (in million tonnes CO 2 eq) 5.2 13.1 12.3 12.2 12.4 7.6 4.4 288