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Ireland’s Environment 2012
30
Implementation of this Package is
envisaged in two main strands:
(1) the EU ETS, which involves
major industrial emitters and is
implemented mainly by the EU
Commission;
(2) limits under the
Effort Sharing
Decision
for all other sectors, to
be implemented by each Member
State.
The 2020 EU Effort Sharing Decision
(EP and CEU, 2009b) commits
Ireland to reducing emissions
from those sectors in Ireland that
are not covered by the ETS (e.g.
transport, agriculture, residential)
to 20% below 2005 levels. This will
result in a limit of approximately
38 Mt CO
2
eq for Ireland’s non-ETS
emissions in 2020, together with
annual binding limits for each year
from 2013 to 2020.
Figure 2.7 shows projections of GHG
emissions to 2020. Projections
‘with
measures’
represent a “business-as-
usual” scenario where only policies
and measures that have been
already adopted or implemented
are considered. Projections
‘with
additional measures’
represent a
scenario where all the planned
measures are considered to be fully
implemented in a timely fashion.
The EPA emissions projections
indicate that even under the most
optimistic scenario (
with additional
measures
), Ireland will exceed its
annual limit in 2017 and exceed
its 2020 target. Under the with
measures scenario, it is projected
that Ireland will exceed its annual
limit in 2015. The predicted
cumulative exceedance over the
2013–2020 period is estimated to
be between 2.0 and 20 Mt CO
2
eq.
The projections under the most
optimistic scenario are predicated
on the assumption that Government
policy targets, such as the
40% renewable energy target
for electricity generation, are
implemented and delivered in full.
In addition, significantly reduced
economic growth rates underpin
the projections out to 2020. In
order to meet future targets, Ireland
must deliver and implement all
planned policies and measures as
well as identifying new policies and
measures.
Transport and agriculture are the
two key sectors in relation to the
2020 targets, accounting for 75%
of non-ETS sector emissions in
2020. Efforts to reduce non-ETS
sector emissions must therefore
focus on these two sectors. Ireland
faces considerable challenges
in developing cost-effective and
environmentally effective policies
for transport and agriculture given
their importance to the economy and
the limited availability of low-cost
solutions. Latest projections indicate
that through full implementation
of
all
foreseen mitigation measures,
a small reduction in transport
emissions is achievable by 2020.
The agriculture sector is projected to
expand under the
Food Harvest 2020
strategy, which further highlights
the challenge that Ireland faces in
meeting the 2020 non-ETS sector
targets.
It is noteworthy that under current
accounting rules for the EU 2020
limits, Ireland is not permitted to
include the contribution from forest
sinks, which is estimated to be 32 Mt
of CO
2
equivalents over the 2013–
2020 period. Ireland is contributing
to discussions at international level
that may alter this situation in the
future.
Figure 2.7
GHG Emission Projections to 2020 (Source: EPA)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Mt CO
2
equivalent
“With Measures” non-Emissions Trading Scheme Projection (without sinks)
“With Additional Measures” non-Emissions Trading Scheme Projection (without sinks)
Annual Limits